Aleksandar Knežević: Flotantne etničke grupe u demografskim istraživanjima

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Aleksandar Knežević, Flotantne etničke grupe u demografskim istraživanjima,
Anali za istrske in mediteranske študije, Series Historia et Sociologia, 27, 2017, 2, Koper 2017

THE FLOATING ETHNIC GROUPS IN DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH –
METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES, APPROACHES AND EXAMPLES

Aleksandar KNEŽEVIC
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Geography, Studentski Trg 3/III, 11000 Belgrade, Republic of Serbia
e-mail: [email protected]

SUMMARY

Demographic research of the fl oating ethnic groups in Serbia are directly connected to the methodological
problems of ethno-statistical evidence, that affect the quality of the census data, vital statistics and derived demographic
trends. The usage of subjective criteria, as a offi cial principle in expression of ethnic identity in census and
vital statistics, gave rise to ethnic mimicry and created a fl oating ethnic groups, characterized by varying trends in
population dynamics due to frequent changes in ethnic declaration. According to the results of quantitative research
of population growth indicators according to declared nationality at the period 1948–2011, the ethnic groups are
clustered by variability trends, that don't have a demographic explanation. The methodological changes of ethno
statistical evidence, changes of statistical nomenclature of ethnic characteristics, the interstate agreements of resettling
and political instrumentalization of census may cause statistical variability characterized by predictability, and
the possibility of reconstruction of demographic trends. On the other side, there are the fl oating ethnic groups whose
ethno-national identifi cation was directed by complex infl uences of historical-civilization, socio-cultural, economic
and political factors. The basic characteristics of this ethnic groups are continuous variability of demographic indicators,
unpredictability of trends, disparities of ethnic characteristics within the same ethnic group, and absence of
correlation between the components of population dynamics and indicators of population growth, which hinders
the formation of explicable demographic trends.


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